View over Öskju and Víti, from Norðri. Image: Michelle Parks/Veðurstofa Íslands
Deformation Measurements Remain Stable Since Late August
Last Friday, experts gathered at the Icelandic Meteorological Office for a scientific conference that included specialists from the IMO, geoscientists from the University of Iceland’s Earth Science Department, and representatives from Civil Protection. The discussion focused on recent changes in the deformation data around Askja, revealing a notable shift.
Since early August, the rate of deformation has effectively leveled off, with measurements stabilizing at multiple stations situated within and around the caldera. At this point, the reasons behind this reduction in pressure remain unclear. It’s possible that the source of inflation has been temporarily halted, or we may be observing an outflow of magmatic fluids.
During the same period, seismic activity in the region has maintained a steady course, showing no signs of unusual geothermal disturbances. Regular geodetic assessments around Askja have historically documented cycles of subsidence and uplift that have not culminated in volcanic eruptions. The IMO continues to monitor the area, which remains at an elevated uncertainty level. The latest data requires further modeling to discern the processes responsible for these recent changes. Additionally, a new seismic station was installed last week to the west of Askja, aimed at improving earthquake localization.
Results of Summer Field Campaigns Indicate No Increased Activity
The data collected by the end of August 2023, featuring results from the summer’s geochemical field campaigns, confirmed that there was no indication of heightened geothermal activity in Askja nor any signs of magma migrating closer to the surface during that period.
While maintaining monitoring equipment during the winter months proves challenging, there are plans to visit Askja to install additional instruments, including cameras and thermocouples. A further update is expected in a month’s time, unless there are significant changes in Askja’s activity before then.
The accompanying plot illustrates the cGNSS data from the KASC station located within the Askja caldera. This time series tracks deformation trends since November 2022 across the North, East, and Up components, with the most recent measurement marked by the green dot.