Trump’s Tariff Threats: A Double-Edged Sword for Denmark and Greenland
In a surprising turn of events, former President Donald Trump has issued tariff threats against Denmark and seven NATO allies, ostensibly as a show of strength. While this escalates tensions, it appears Greenland may initially dodge punitive tariffs on its fish exports to the United States.
“From what I’ve observed, there have been no specific threats concerning tariffs on Greenland at this point, so we remain uncertain about what may come next,” notes Henrik Leth, managing director of Polar Seafood Denmark. For Greenland, he suggests, Trump’s customs threats may ultimately be a minor inconvenience.
Polar Seafood Greenland stands as the territory’s largest private exporter. This prominent company also holds a significant stake in Polar Seafood Denmark, which handles the distribution of its products beyond Greenland’s shores.
Historically, Greenland has not been part of the EU since its departure in 1985. However, a substantial portion of its seafood exports, particularly to the U.S., has traditionally flowed through Denmark. This arrangement has made the North American market a critical source of revenue—accounting for about 20% of Royal Greenland’s income.
“Customs duties are determined by the country of origin and remain unchanged based on whether the goods transit through Denmark,” Leth explains.
Economic Warfare
On Saturday, Trump escalated tensions further, declaring an economic war against eight of the U.S.’s own NATO allies, including Denmark. His controversial demand that the U.S. take over Greenland has positioned both NATO and the EU on shaky ground. As EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas warned, failure to yield could pose an existential threat to both organizations. Politiken’s international commentator Michael Jarlner referred to this as a potentially destabilizing moment in history.
Yet, this imposed pressure on Denmark and Greenland may backfire, according to Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The interconnected customs arrangements within the EU mean that Trump’s battle could expand into a confrontation with the world’s largest trading bloc.
A Tariff Bombshell
On his platform, Truth Social, Trump dropped what many are calling a tariff bomb. Announcing punitive tariffs, he implicated Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Finland—countries that contribute forces to Greenland’s defense.
Effective February 1, these nations face a potential 10% tariff on their exports to the U.S., with an increase to 25% looming in June, should Trump’s demands remain unaddressed.
The Significance of the U.S. Market
The United States continues to be a vital player in the global economic landscape, accounting for a significant segment of the world’s consumption despite representing just 4% of the global population. In 2024, Greenland’s exports to the U.S. reached approximately $33 million (around 200 million Danish kroner), while Denmark’s exports to the U.S. were valued at about 370 billion kroner.
Christian Keldsen, Greenland’s Business Director, underscores that not all of Greenland’s goods reach the U.S. via Denmark. “Some goods are routed through Canada—Trump hasn’t threatened tariffs against them. Only those exports passing through Denmark are likely to be impacted,” he clarifies.
While the U.S. market holds potential, Keldsen indicates that for many products, competing markets may offer better prices. He views Trump’s punitive tariffs as less about Greenland and more as a test of EU and NATO resilience. According to him, any economic impact on Greenland is negligible; there won’t be significant job losses or investment challenges as a result.
Reflecting on the broader ramifications, Keldsen observes a strong response from European nations affected by the tariffs, signaling robust economies willing to stand firm against U.S. pressure. In 2024, Royal Greenland reported a turnover of one billion kroner in North America, exporting a variety of seafood products, including shellfish and cod.
As the narrative unfolds, it remains to be seen how this diplomatic tug-of-war will play out, but for now, Greenland appears largely insulated from the immediate fallout of Trump’s economic gambit.