The newly released report, A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping, offers crucial insights into the potential consequences of a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and outlines essential policy recommendations.
This impactful report was published on Thursday, February 5, 2026, on the Nordic Council’s website: https://pub.norden.org/temanord2026-504.
The AMOC plays a critical role in transporting heat across the North Atlantic and is a significant factor in shaping the relatively mild climate experienced in the Nordic region. However, the impacts of global warming are causing a slowdown in this vital current, raising concerns about a potential collapse—even under relatively modest levels of global temperature increase. Such an event could transform Northern Europe’s climate into a much colder one while the rest of the globe continues to warm, impacting food production, energy systems, and livelihoods in profound ways.
“The AMOC is a crucial component of the climate system in the Nordic region. While the future of the AMOC remains uncertain, we cannot ignore the risk of rapid weakening or collapse,” cautions Aleksi Nummelin, Research Professor at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. “This report consolidates current scientific understanding and underscores the importance of practical mitigation, monitoring, and preparedness actions.”
Key Takeaways from the Report
- Urgent action is essential for effective mitigation that aims for decarbonization and net negative emissions. Given the uncertain timeline and conditions under which the AMOC might cross its critical threshold, it’s imperative to adopt a precautionary stance: any further warming or prolonged “overshoot” beyond 1.5°C escalates the risk of AMOC collapse. Therefore, curtailing any additional warming is paramount.
- Ongoing funding is required to develop and maintain key observational networks and establish an AMOC early warning system. This system should integrate Earth observations with model simulations and be incorporated into policymaking to enable swift action. The new EU Ocean Act presents an opportunity to facilitate this coordination.
- While we are faced with considerable uncertainty regarding the future of the AMOC, its collapse could lead to extreme impacts in the Nordic countries that may diverge from global climate change predictions. It’s vital to craft adaptable climate change strategies that take into consideration the unique vulnerabilities of the region. These strategies should be designed to function effectively under various potential scenarios, regardless of whether AMOC tipping occurs. Furthermore, we must treat the potential collapse of the AMOC as a serious risk, integrating comprehensive risk management frameworks throughout all levels of governance.
This report is the result of collaborative efforts among Nordic and international experts.
Initiated during the Nordic Council of Ministers’ ‘Nordic Tipping Week’ workshop held from October 21 to 24, 2025, in Helsinki and Rovaniemi, the gathering brought together scientists from diverse disciplines—ranging from physical oceanography to social science—to explore AMOC dynamics and their implications.
The Finnish Meteorological Institute took the lead in coordinating the report, which was driven in part by an Open Letter from Climate Scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers presented in 2024. This letter raised alarms about the potential risks of an AMOC collapse, suggesting that they had not received the attention they warranted.