In October 2025, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) was awarded a substantial grant of ISK 147 million by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) aimed at advancing four key development projects focusing on volcanic hazards and aviation safety. These initiatives are centered on pioneering measurement techniques, automating the analysis of eruption plumes, and enhancing collaboration among European volcano observatories while delving into the implications of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) for air travel.
The overarching goal of these projects is to bolster the monitoring and communication of volcanic risks, thus mitigating threats to aviation, particularly over the North Atlantic. This funding not only affirms IMO’s pivotal role as Iceland’s State Volcano Observatory (SVO) but also highlights the significance of Icelandic expertise in volcanic hazard management.
Since its formal recognition as Iceland’s State Volcano Observatory in 2010 by the Icelandic Transport Authority—formerly the Civil Aviation Administration—following the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the IMO has held the responsibility for reporting volcanic activity. This includes maintaining communication with the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) and other relevant bodies, in adherence to ICAO mandates.
IMO plays a crucial role in tracking, forecasting, and issuing warnings about natural hazards, particularly focusing on the country’s active volcanic systems.
The Four Development Projects:
Calibrated Digital Surveillance-Camera Network at Jan Mayen for Volcanic Plume Height Assessment (CamJan)
This initiative sets out to create an automated system to detect, measure, and disseminate information on volcanic plumes that may emerge from Jan Mayen volcano in Norway. Currently, the tools for monitoring volcanic activity in this region are scarce. To augment these capabilities, IMO plans to install a network of calibrated cameras that will complement the sporadic satellite data. Ultimately, this project aims to establish new protocols for monitoring the Jan Mayen volcano.
Digital Twin for Improved Eruption Source Parameters Assessment and Forecasting Capabilities of Atmospheric Volcanic Hazards from Icelandic Volcanoes (DigiVolc)
Touted as a significant progression in aviation safety, this project focuses on developing an operational Digital Twin (DT) at IMO. This system will enable near-real-time quantification of eruption source parameters (ESPs), essential for accurately forecasting the spread of volcanic ash clouds, which pose significant risks to aviation. The HIS construction will integrate various observation sources—including ground-based instruments, satellite data, and calibrated camera feeds—with advanced modeling techniques to provide timely ESP estimates for several hazardous volcanoes. These estimates will come with uncertainty assessments, further enhancing the aviation sector’s confidence in managing volcanic risks.
Common Procedures and Operational Standards Within the European Volcano Observatory Network (EVON-avi)
This endeavor aims to standardize the protocols by which European Volcano Observatories (VOs) relay crucial information to the aviation industry during volcanic incidents. At present, discrepancies exist in the assessment of volcanic plume heights, the application of aviation color codes, and the formatting of Volcano Observatory Notices for Aviation (VONAs). Such inconsistencies can lead to uncertainty for Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres, Meteorological Watch Offices, Air Navigation Service Providers, and airlines, particularly in the North Atlantic, where eruptions in Iceland and the Azores regularly disrupt major transatlantic flight routes. EVON-avi will rectify these issues through the development of unified guidelines for plume height estimation and training on the use of calibrated cameras and IWXXM-formatted VONAs, while also coordinating efforts to maintain a comprehensive European Catalog of Volcanoes.
Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide Encounters (VOSDE): Towards the Mitigation of Volcanic SO₂ Hazards for Improved Aviation Safety
This project will create and analyze a unique dataset capturing in-flight encounters with volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂). Despite increasing acknowledgment of volcanic gas hazards, the global aviation sector lacks robust datasets and established exposure thresholds for SO₂ risks. VOSDE aims to tackle the impacts of volcanic SO2 emissions, particularly across the North Atlantic—an area vital for global civil aviation. The project’s findings will help assess whether issuing SIGMET warnings for SO₂ emissions from eruptions is warranted, thereby enhancing international preparedness and response strategies within the framework of the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW). Through this initiative, aviation safety and security will be significantly strengthened, better protecting passengers, crews, aircraft, and flight routes during extended volcanic disturbances.
A survey related to these developments has also been launched: *Survey on Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide Hazards and Aviation Safety.*
A total of nine staff members from IMO are actively engaged in these ICAO development projects, which are expected to span one to three years. These initiatives further solidify IMO’s international role in volcanic hazard assessment and aviation safety, building on the extensive knowledge and experience derived from Iceland’s volcanic activity over recent decades.
The figure on the left illustrates the SO₂ distribution from a volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula, detected by the Sentinel-5P satellite (ESA, 2025). The figure on the right depicts the Reykjavík Flight Information Region—encompassing Iceland’s responsibilities for aviation safety across the North Atlantic.